Even as GSK’s RSV vaccine launch hits a serious slowdown, the British pharma has dialed up its long-term sales guidance once again.
GSK now expects to generate more than 40 billion pound sterling ($50 billion) in 2031 sales, the company said Wednesday alongside its fourth-quarter earnings report. For 2024, the pharma giant reported 31.4 billion pound sterling in total revenue, a 7% increase at constant exchange rates.
The new target is an increase from the company’s 38 billion pound sterling projection, announced last year, and its 33 billion pound sterling forecast in 2021 when GSK transformed into a pure-play drugmaker by spinning off its consumer health franchise into Haleon.
The latest increase reflects the revival of the once-withdrawn antibody-drug conjugate Blenrep, as well as “multiple launch opportunities in the ’26-to-’31 period,” GSK CEO Emma Walmsley said on a Wednesday call with investors.
After two back-to-back phase 3 wins in second-line multiple myeloma, GSK has re-adopted a projection that Blenrep’s peak sales could exceed 3 billion pound sterling. The number does not account for any risk factors, according to GSK. Conversely, the groupwide sales target is risk-adjusted, with 90% of the total coming from products that are already approved or planned for launch in the next three years.
GSK pulled Blenrep as a late-line myeloma therapy in late 2022. Now, the company expects an FDA decision for the BCMA-directed ADC's second-line use by July 23 of this year. GSK has recently launched a phase 3 trial, Dreamm-10, in the first-line setting, with headline results expected toward the end of 2027, chief commercial officer Luke Miels said on the call.
The addition of Blenrep, plus over 4 billion pound sterling in combined peak sales from Nucala and the near-market long-acting IL-5 drug depemokimab, will help boost the contribution of GSK's specialty medicines portfolio to more than 50% of the company’s overall top line, according to Walmsley.
Meanwhile, the rise of therapeutics comes in stark contrast to the struggles that GSK’s vaccines business is navigating.
After a blockbuster burst onto the market last year, sales of the RSV vaccine Arexvy nosedived this season. In a similar pattern already seen in the third quarter, Arexvy sales in the fourth quarter plummeted by 70% year over year to 158 million pound sterling ($198 million), landing 32% below analysts’ expectations.
RSV vaccine demand was lower this year because of a restricted recommendation from the CDC, plus a late season and an unfavorable comparison to launch stocking in 2023, Miels explained. On Tuesday, Pfizer also reported $198 million in fourth-quarter sales for its RSV shot Abrysvo.
For 2025, GSK doesn’t expect the age restrictions in the CDC’s RSV immunization recommendation will change.
Also in vaccines, GSK’s star Shingles vaccine Shingrix saw sales drop 4% at constant exchange rates to 848 million pound sterling ($1.06 billion) in the last three months of 2024.
An overall vaccines market slowdown in China has recently struck a nerve with investors. On Tuesday, Merck & Co. said it’s temporarily suspending shipments of its HPV vaccine Gardasil to China so that it and its partner Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products can work through an inventory backlog. Disappointing prospects of the shot sent Merck’s stock price down by about 10% Tuesday morning.
GSK is also partnered with Zhifei on Shingrix. On Wednesday’s GSK call, Miels acknowledged the short-term headwinds in China as well as a low expectation for Shingrix in the country in 2025. But he stressed that the company is there for a “mid- to longer-term play." Walmsley stressed that none of the short-term pressure “takes away from our longer-term ambition” for the shot.
GSK has adjusted expectations for both Arexvy and Shingrix in its 2031 sales target, although Walmsley said she expects vaccines to “remain a key source of future growth” for the firm.
Elsewhere, another pillar of GSK’s business, HIV drugs, delivered nearly 2 billion pound sterling ($2.5 billion) in fourth-quarter sales, good for 11% growth year over year. The company's long-acting injectable treatment Cabenuva and PrEP drug Apretude played a role in the growth.
With the new sales target set and pipeline progressing, GSK on Wednesday also announced a 2 billion-pound sterling share buyback program to be implemented over the next 18 months.
“We believe this offers a very attractive return for shareholders at current share price levels,” Walmsley said. “Very importantly, and to reconfirm, we will maintain planned increased levels of investment in R&D, new launches and targeted business development alongside these share buybacks.”